Dr. Doom? Not Anymore
Dr. Doom is seeing the green shoots too;
“I was one of those predicting a 24-month recession in the US; the optimists said this would be an eight-month recession, but they got it wrong. I will be the first to call a bottom when I see one. The consensus is that the US recession will be over in June. I see it ending in December, so it is only six months difference. I am not a perma-bear. A nickname is just a nickname. My views are not particularly extreme.”
Equity markets have always been considered a leading index and they bottomed out in the first week of March. There are green shoots popping up amongst the dead grass all over.
Dr. Roubini seems to have a reasonable timeframe for the general economy to turn like the stock markets have turned. I hope he is correct as that will fuel a major follow up rally.
If the GOP waits until 2010 to admit what will be clearly seen by all, Barack Obama will be placed on the same economic pedestal as Bill Clinton. The 1990s was the first “decade of the 401K” and people have fond economic memories of that era. If Barack Obama is able to take full credit for the “401K Recovery” the GOP will be sidelined on economic issues for a generation.
The general economy remains extremely rough but there is nothing wrong with assuming the winning and positive attitude of Ronald Reagan of acknowledging that we have turned the corner as shown in market indexes, with generous thanks to George W. Bush, and that the GOP is cautiously optimistic good times are ahead and will work to grow the recovery.
There are a myriad of ways that the GOP could use a theme of “grow the recovery” from making permanent the capital gains tax rates to roping together nuclear power if we are going to be force fed cap and trade.
In 45 days, millions of IRA and 401K investors will receive statements, that at this point in time appear will show positive gains. This is after their horrid 2008 year end statements. Someone is going to get the credit for that. This June will probably be the last opportunity for the GOP to set the table so George W. Bush and Republicans can get the credit or at least reduce the damage to the GOP in 2010.
Bill Clinton rode an economic wave that he caught in 1992.
Barack Obama, under the tutelage of Warren Buffet, plans on riding an economic wave that had its infancy in the closing days of 2008.
Update: The consensus grows with some saying June, December and now September;
Like water draining from a hole in a bucket, the pace of job cuts and financial losses in this economic downturn is slowing from a torrent to a trickle.
There’s no doubt the pain of this recession will last for years to come. But economists say they see some early signs that the recession itself will officially end by September, and that America may soon see the worst of the spasms wracking its economy.
If you deny the recovery, you can not then turn around and take credit for it because by then, someone else will have taken the credit.
Update; More here.
Subscribe to blog feed.
May 18th, 2009 at 5:00 am
Hello. I was reading someone elses blog and saw you on their blogroll. Would you be interested in exchanging blog roll links? If so, feel free to email me.
Thanks.
May 18th, 2009 at 5:48 am
I just don’t understand why this conservative site does not post conservative issues and “call out” liberals that are ruining our country.
Why no post on Obama and his speech at Notre Dame? Why no posts on Joe Biden and his ridiculous comments? Why no comments on Pelosi and her lying on water-boarding? Why no posts on the attack on Christians by this White House? Why no posts on the Obama administrations dumping of Israel? Why no posts on the cut in military? Why no posts on the way Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan has become more dangerous? Why no posts on civil liberties like gun ownership that Obamas camp wants to discuss? Why no posts on the right to life? Why no posts on lowering taxes instead of raising them like this administration wants?
Instead we cheerlead Socialist inroads into our country.
[I post on Life Issues all the time. I post on Soldier issues all the time, because I support the Troops. I post on fighting to make the capital gains tax rate permanent all the time. I post on protecting the border all the time. I post on supporting America by buying Made in USA all the time. And yes, if/when teaching is outsourced to India and you are replaced by a teleconference system, I will speak out for you and your job.I have a keen interest on the economy at the moment because the similiarities between the GOP failure in 1992 to today are strikingly similar. Politics always comes back to ECONOMICS!!!!!! Its the economy stupid. Face it, Bill Clinton is viewed as an ECONOMIC GENIUS. Obama is on the verge of a repeat. If the GOP does not get out in front an entire generation will be fed, "We told you Democrats were good for the economy. Bush killed the greatest economy ever built by Clinton and it took Obama a democrat to bring it back." Can you not see the ramification of that? The GOP may have fatally shot itself when it proclaimed the Obama Bear Market, which was sheer stupidity to think this was going to last. OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 6:06 am
Perhaps poli (jokeleaf) supports all of the statist bravo sierra mentioned, with the exception of illigal immigration.
[Can you please restate that great quote, so I do not have to look it up where you are literally praying for an economic collapse so the GOP can come in to save the day. OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 6:22 am
Hey even on immigration who do they blame? They only attack republican rinos. They must be afraid of the White House machinery and of Rahm’s attacks. Why not attack Dems on the immigration issue? Why not attack Dems on Acorn and voter fraud? Why not attack Obama for moving the census to the White House from the Commerce Dept.?
The list is endless but what do we get from this site???
[Who does not know what the Democrats position on immigration is? Maybe I should do a post entitled "Daylight at Noon" where we can discuss that daylight is the norm at noon. Now, if you can find a Democrat who does not support their party, I will write about that and cheer them on. The GOP however, I thought was the law and order party so according to you I should ignore anyone with the GOP label. OL]
[Riddle me this as a Republican. Since you already called this the Obama Bear Market, at Dow what (9,000-10,000-11,000-12,000-13,000......) do you say "we are f'ed?" Planning to win by hoping for failure is a prescription for defeat. Many of the economic issues that you want can be won if the debate is changed from "things suck" to "preserve the fragile growth." OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 6:28 am
Oak Leaf–I use to say Bill Clinton was one of the best republican presidents ever.
How come the economy was so good in the 1990s? Because he did the opposite of what Obama is doing and worked with good conservative economic policies instead of socialist ones. He signed republican legislation since they were in control of Congress. Maybe it did so good in the Clinton years because Hillary’s Health Care went down. Now, we get similar health care promises from Obama.
Sure you are going to get up-ticks in the economy all the time. Is Obama’s policies worth the long term consequences?
May 18th, 2009 at 6:32 am
Oak–I just wish you held Obama and this administration accountable for the things you disagree with them on. It may not be–but it sure seems that you have a tingle going up and down your leg when it comes to Barrack. You seem as partisan as Olbermann and Matthews in your support for this administration..
[Obama is the President of the United States and that is not going to change. Everything goes through him weither we like it or not, so the question becomes how do you position yourself going forward. That statement infuriates the wackos, who I will not name, because they insist to this day he is not lawful because he is not a US Citizen......and that he is going to turn the US into Zimbabwe.....
I am THRILLED the economy is turning because I am more concerned about my neighbor than politicians. OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 6:34 am
By the way—I am a ticket splitter. Which is much different from the 30% of the Dems in my county who voted straight Dem. in November.
Let me explain myself a little better. I am NOT harping on green shoots because of any “affinity for Obama.” I did NOT vote for the man, neither did WC or Poli. I AM harping on the economy to get it off the table,because the GOP put it smack dab on the dining room table. !! Can others not see this after Clinton? Does that make better sense? OL
One more point. The GOP could have ignored the economy in March and just kept their mouths shut since it is another cycle we are going through, the economy is cyclical. Instead they said LOOKIE, LOOKIE. With that done, shutting up is useless so what do you do? Well, you can acknowledge things are getting better and try to give some credit to where credit is due, George W. Bush. OL
May 18th, 2009 at 6:52 am
An economic recovery will benifit the jerk in the white house. The present jerk is a warmed over marxist. ERGO~~Anyone hoping for an economic recovery is hoping for the success of marxism. An economic recovery will finance the socilast crap he has in store for us. Our only hope of stopping said crap, is to starve it through lower tax revenues,ie: An economic slowdown.
SSTBO~~~WAS
[Lets put your feelings to some numbers. What percentage drop in values must 401k holders, IRA holders and TSA holders actually get so your thesis can occur? Is it 10%? 50%? 90%? Please put real dollars on to your thesis. Does that 50 year old with a $100,000 IRA need to drop to $10,000? OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 7:03 am
IP- I hope for economic recovery no matter who is president. My problem is it will get better, even with Obama -not because of him.
[You put a smile on my face. Since we agree it "will get better" the question is what you do politically? Remember, the GOP already embraced the Obama Bear Market. I want economic gains PLUS political gains for Conservatives. Hence "grow the fragile economic shoots" and "Thank you, George Bush." I sense you do not think Conservatives will go far with "Mugabe Sucks." OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 7:09 am
The deregulation during the Clinton years led to the ecnomic collapse during the Bush years. Hopefully our current president will not create sustainable gains by re-regulating the banking industry.
May 18th, 2009 at 7:19 am
So this is supposed to be an advertisement for Obama’s new citiyear group apparently.
They’re trying to recruit people for this maybe.
Why not just join the peace corps?
[I want to use a quote of yours in an upcoming entry. You basically said the stimulus was slated to go online in 2010 before the election. Can you find it for me. Thanks, OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 7:27 am
Does that 50 year old with a $100,000 IRA need to drop to $10,000? OL]
You missed the entire premise: Decreaing economic activity starves the leftists of their tax revenue. That is the goal.If joe six pack loses hi 401k in the process, all the better,as he will be pissed at barack o’vomit, and seek revenge accordingly.
May 18th, 2009 at 7:55 am
The idea that the Republican Party can get any kind of credit for a recovery is laughable.
If Obama’s economic plan works, he will get all of the credit, just as any President will get all of the credit for an economic recovery
You, in your usual deeply personally dishonest way, are simply trying to get Republicans to sign aboard this disaster so that when it inevitably fails, there will be JokeLeaf saying, “Well, it failed, but it was a bipartisan failure!”
No
Obama and the Democratic Party own this lock stock and barrel
If socialism, higher taxes, a socialized medical system, trillion dollar annual budget deficits as far as the eye can see, hatred of businesses and businessmen, weakness and effeminacy abroad, massively higher spending et etc etc…
If all of that WORKS
Then he DESERVES all of the credit!
Let’s wait and see
By the way, I find it comical for you to claim that Roubini saying the recession will end in December is THE SAME as you saying it is over in May as if a seven month differential in time frame is meaningless
Also, please stop lying about your support for Obama. On the night he was elected you said you wanted him reelected. If that’s not support I don’t know what is
Overall, congratulations on another deeply personally dishonest post, the type we’ve come to expect from you
[Mexican lover, I honestly hope that the financial markets have done so well by 2012 that Obama is re-elected. Hey, I am sure you will be in love with Obama when he proposes Amnesty later this year. I am sure you will be writing about it too. OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 7:58 am
If the country is to become the Soviet Union JokeLeaf it will do so without my assistance
[When are you going to do a blog diary on your 100% support for amnesty? Need quotes, I can get your oldies but goodies. I will not hold my breath. OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 8:05 am
A couple of counterpoints for you:
1 and
2
May 18th, 2009 at 8:06 am
I’ll stop fighting with you and anyone else on this site if you’ll simply change the slogan of the site to:
Elections and Politics with a Far Left bent. If you love Barack Obama, get your fix here!
HONESTY, son
HONESTY
PERSONAL INTEGRITY
These things are important
Say what you mean, mean what you say, stop endlessly lying and bullshitting people
To quote Monty Python:
“You’re not fooling anyone, you know?”
[Far left, bull shit. You are the AMNESTY LOVER. Is their an illegal that you do not love? I am sure you cheered when the Supreme Court when all your illegal relatives got off. Why do you want to turn my country, a country that I have defended, into Tijuana? If Mexico and Mexicans is so lovely MOVE. OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 8:08 am
I wonder if Tears of Joy will be posting a list of countries that have adopted policies like those pursued by Obama and experienced an explosion of economic growth and expansion of wealth.
You know, just to support his argument.
I’m sure it will be forthcoming soon.
May 18th, 2009 at 8:10 am
Well there may be some good news for Michigan. Granholm might be named to the Supreme Court. God-Help the rest of the country. Maybe now you will see why Michigan has been going down hill for the last seven years.
May 18th, 2009 at 8:11 am
Well, Drood, we can see the wonderful results of liberalism in California, can’t we now?
Detroit, New Orleans, two more garden paradises on earth
May 18th, 2009 at 8:13 am
MI Conservative
If you guys had busted the unions twenty years ago you’d be fine
I think eventually all of the Big Three will end up in liquidation
Labor unions are like pancreatic cancer to a business, or the creature’s blood in the Aliens’ series
May 18th, 2009 at 8:23 am
The Speaker of the House has been challenged to resign in unprecedented angry scenes in the House chamber, and faces a motion of no confidence signed by members of all parties.
This is the situation in the Parliament of the United Kingdom.
I wonder how many people want this to happen in the United States right now.
May 18th, 2009 at 9:42 am
OL, why do you persist in your fantasy that the great wealth destroyer will use government spending to restore us?
[Hey, go buy ammo and guns and canned food. Get your short wave radio too, I heard survivalist are into short wave as well. OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 9:54 am
IF there is a recovery, I do not think it will be long lasting. There are WAAAY too many bad things on the Horizon, between Health Care, Cap-n-Trade, The Big 3 completing the most expensive bankruptcies in history (At OUR expense! YAY). Layoffs keep occurring, Businesses keep closing- I am seeing it more and more even here in Texas, and we are supposedly on of the brighter spots in the economy. Gas prices are rising, and there are certain Int’l considerations that threaten to send everything in the crapper again.
Plus, the policies that are being put into place and the tactics being used by this administration SHOULD make anyone who actually believes in the Constituion and the Free Enterprise system that made this country great sick to their stomach….
I can’t cheerlead this- there is too much wrong with Washington, the country, and the world.
As a student of history, Oak, I would hope you would realize that there existed MANY in 1933-1939 Germany that spoke as you do- Hitler presided over a Germany that raced out of the Depression- faster than the other ailing economies in Europe.
Would you have embraced that recovery, too?
[As a young lad, I bought into the doom of 1980 at the end of Carter. I bought into the doom that was going to happen under Clinton. If you are making a decision between keeping your money in the mattress or buying gold for the next four years, the mattress will give you a better return. OL]
May 18th, 2009 at 10:26 am
I think the record breaking amount of people receiving unemployment would disagree on the recovery.
I think the Chrysler and GM dealers(even those making a profit)who are being forced out would disagree.
May 18th, 2009 at 10:35 am
Does your fool’s cap have little bells on it?
May 18th, 2009 at 10:47 am
JokeLeaf:
No substantive response to any of my points (as usual)
Rather, racism directed against my Hispanic wife
You are a piece of trash and a psychopath
Goodbye, I will never post on this site again
I hope you get the psychiatric care you need soon, son
May 18th, 2009 at 10:47 am
[Far left, bull shit. You are the AMNESTY LOVER. Is their an illegal that you do not love? I am sure you cheered when the Supreme Court when all your illegal relatives got off. Why do you want to turn my country, a country that I have defended, into Tijuana? If Mexico and Mexicans is so lovely MOVE. OL]
Boy, that’s a new low, even for you.
This isn’t your blog. You’ve been given the privilege of posting on Poli’s blog. I would think you are expected to exercise some restraint or would at least feel obligated to out of common decency.
Have you no respect for Poli or his blog, any of the posters, or for yourself.
What’s worse, you disgrace the military and your country with your hateful outbursts.
You should go away.
May 18th, 2009 at 10:54 am
MI Conservative-I don’t think he will pick Granholm. He will pcik either a minority,a hom osexual,or maybe both.
May 18th, 2009 at 10:57 am
MI Conservative-I don’t think he will pick Granholm. He will pcik either a minority,a hom osexual,or maybe both.
May 18th, 2009 at 10:58 am
Well, I tried to have an intelligent conversation with Oak Leaf on here today.
He ends up sounding like all the moveon.orgs after a few hours. Sounds like you are losing what’s left of your mind Oak.
MFG- Don’t stop posting. That’s what he wants. To ruin this site completely, which he is doing a good job of. Keep posting so he can continue to post garbage and let people know what he is really like. Some of his posts are so outlandish I’m surprised he want to post them at all since it shows his real inner self.
May 18th, 2009 at 10:59 am
Earl- I hope you are right. We need to have her as governor in 2010 so we can continue to blame her with the office up for grabs.
May 18th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Where do you keep your money if you cvan’t afford a mattres?
May 18th, 2009 at 11:35 am
‘Far left, bull shit. You are the AMNESTY LOVER. Is their an illegal that you do not love? I am sure you cheered when the Supreme Court when all your illegal relatives got off. Why do you want to turn my country, a country that I have defended, into Tijuana? If Mexico and Mexicans is so lovely MOVE.’
What a disgrace by the cowardly Colonel Queeg. This is precisely why he is tolerated on this site–that is music to Poli’s ears. As long as Colonel Queeg keeps strumming that particular tune, he is free to post all his other deranged crap and pull this site into the sewer.
May 18th, 2009 at 11:44 am
“MEXICAN LOVER”???
You know, it is arguably racist comments like such as that which tarnish everyone who wants to secure the southern border. Thanks for providing the open borders crowd ANOTHER chance to paint us on the Right as a bunch of Racist Hicks!
I’m not even going to get into the personal nature that took- if we were in a bar I’d knocked your ass out if someone attacked my family in that way.
That was pretty despicable. Just when I think you can’t get any lower, you do.
May 18th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
The glass is between two-thirds and three-quarters full. But the rest of it is empty – and the part that is empty is pretty important.”
So not Dr Doom any more. More like Mr Gloom.
I wouldn’t call Mr. Roubini’s financial assessment particularly glowing. It is just less catastrophic-focused than it used to be.
In fact I was listening to a stock guy this morning and he seemed less than optimistic about the stock market. He viewed the current rise as being artificial, as it was backed by low corporate earnings that do not support the percentages now lurching upward.
His advice was to invest cautiously, with anticipation that soon the false optimism will turn south again when promised rallies and growth in other markets remain stagnate or fall — then the bottom will again drop out like it did in March.
I continue to think we are experiencing a “stillness” before the worst happens. Many people are continuing to hold on to their businesses, their jobs, their abilities to pay bills by a thread. But, pressure is continuing to build, despite assurances from the top. Obama almost obsessively continues to fill the economic pot with “things he wants funded,” —universial health care, cap & trade ideas. We are deconstructing frugal economics, replacing them with huge entitlement whimsy.
There is no rhyme or reason how this new “stock market bubble,” and that is what it is being termed by some economists, to hold. And, when it bursts, all Hell is going to break loose!
May 18th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Jan, for once I agree with you.
May 18th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Is OakLeaf a hero
Or a wisely monk
A Kos planted Nero
Or a drunk?
But he sure has spunk!
Oh bunk
The man’s a turncoat lout!
No, he’s just not one to with the talking points shout
I’m sure he’s flatulent and crass
Here, here, the man’s a horse’s ass
No, no, he’s neighborly and kind
But quite eclectically inclined
The secret simply will not keep
For PoliPundit’s losing sleep
It’s time to break the spell, won’t someone bloody tell?
Who is Oakleaf and what is he up to, do tell?
Rumor has it he’s Castillian
He’s a reckless buccaneer
I hear he carries several guns with many clips
He’s the protector of a sultan from Kabul with information at his fingertips
They say he’s nearly seven feet tall
And yet quite graceful…all in all
I’m told he waddles when he walks
And often twitches when he talks
Is he a dolt?
No, he’s very deep!
Oh, PoliPundits’s losing sleep!
Who is this OakLeaf and what is he up to, do tell?
Is he vulgarian or sleek?
Authoritarian or meek?
I hear he’s steely as you please
I hear he’s really Japanese
He may be shrewd
He may be crude
Ah well, it’s hard to tell
Who is this OakLeaf, do tell?
He may come from hell
Or maybe just from somewhere around the dell
But he will be here and he will be there
You could see him most any time and most anywhere
He meddles with your Circle Revolution
Popping in and out throughout each week
Spoiling every mob elocution
La, what cheek!
May 18th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
The scarlet pumpernickle strikes again
May 18th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
No recovery.
This is a suckers rally. The fundamentals suck.
We’re still shedding 600K jobs a month. Credit is still non-existent has banks are hoarding money to cover crap still on their books and the next wave of consumer loan defaults.
Unemployment for many starts running out at the end of the summer then the wave of credit card, auto and school loan defaults start as the sheeple who voted for this Marxist have no savings to continue paying their bills.
It will get very ugly this fall and that’s before Crap and Trade, rationed health care and the very real possibility of an Israel/Iran war and terror attacks on this country.
May 19th, 2009 at 5:17 am
Me thinks Oak Leef is smoking some other type of green leef. History will repeat itself. The Obumbler’s economic policies have been tried in the past and they have always failed. The Obumbler is morphing into Jimmy Carter, not Bill Clinton. By December we will have double digit unemployment which will be on the rise and rising inflation. Next year, look out, we will also have double digit inflation. Can you say Jimmy Carter II!