Some thoughts on the Louisiana senate runoff:
1. Suzie Terrell’s performance in the Meet the Press debate was less than impressive. She often mumbled, shifted positions, said she didn’t know what it would cost to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, and made snide remarks about her opponent. Fortunately, Tim Russert didn’t attack her anywhere near as hard as he attacked Landrieu. Landrieu held her own, though, and came off as Senatorial. Fortunately, virtually no one watches senate debates. Unlike presidential debates, most impressions people get of senate debates are through the media filter, and the media studiously avoid writing about their visceral reactions to the candidates. On that level, Terrell did what she had to do – she convinced Louisianans that she’s conservative enough.
2. Landrieu is in deep trouble. I know how people add up the black vote and moderate white voters and say she’ll win; but Bush won this same state by 8% in 2000. The reason is that white voters in the south are now becoming as much a one-party bloc as black voters already are. And, since whites outnumber blacks in Louisiana by 2-1, Republicans now have an advantage. In 1996, Woody Jenkins, who is just this side of David Duke, trailed Landrieu by just 6,000 votes, most of them fraudulent. In 1990, David Duke himself got 45% of the vote in his run for this seat.
3. The election results have substantially altered this race. If the GOP had lost big on election day, Landrieu would be the favorite (heck, she probably wouldn’t even have a runoff.) But the warm afterglow of election victories seems to have manifested itself in the post-election polls.
4. Was the weather a factor in depressing black turnout in the general election? It was raining pretty hard on November 5. Wonder how it’ll be on December 7. One interesting titbit: contrary to conventional wisdom, in the past, more people have voted in the runoff than in the general election.
5. What’s with the lack of polls in this race? I saw mostly partisan, unreliable polls before election day, and still see the same sort of polls. Terrell’s supporters’ polls have her leading; but I’m reluctant to place any stock in them.
Bottom line: Terrell is now the favorite. It’s very important to get her elected so that we can muster a filibuster-proof majority on things like death tax repeal. So I donated at http://suzieterrell.com
You can follow this race at http://politicsla.com and http://lapolitics.com
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