The 2004 Democratic Presidential Candidate
Since I got lucky in predicting Election 2002 by following my gut and going out on a limb, I’m going to try it again. You heard it here first: Barring an unforeseen mega-event, Al Gore will be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2004.
The media is still pretending that it’s trying to figure out whether Gore is running for president; but you don’t give major policy speeches criticizing the Bush administration, write a book on “the American family” and then do a frenzied media book tour, unless you want to run for something. And Gore sure ain’t running for governor.
If Gore runs, he’s practically a shoo-in for the Democratic nomination because:
1. The Democratic primary schedule has been compressed, giving the front-runner an advantage. In effect, it’s more like a national primary, in which the person with the most name recognition and money will have an enormous advantage.
2. Democrats haven’t gotten over the “we wuz robbed” theme. Now, I don’t pretend to understand Democrats; they’re pretty much martians to me. But, when you look at the polls and talk to Democrats, it’s apparent that Florida 2000 is fresh in their minds. Since liberal Democrats are disproportionately represented in the Democratic primary, this gives Gore a huge advantage.
3. Gore is a candidate with nothing to lose. He will, therefore, “out-left” the other candidates, as he has begun to do with his blistering Iraq policy criticisms and single-payer healthcare endorsement. This plays well to the Democratic primary electorate.
4. The other candidates are remarkably unappealing. It’s hard to say that when you’re comparing them to (drum roll) Al Gore! But it’s true. Would you rather be put to sleep by John Kerry, unimpressed by John Edwards or repulsed by Joe Lieberman?
So there you go. Barring an unforeseen mega-event, Al Gore will be the Democratic party nominee for president in 2004.
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