Finally, an independent poll on the Landrieu-Terrell matchup in Louisiana. It shows Landrieu leading 50-34. Before you give up on this race, it’s worth noting that this poll’s accuracy is very suspect because:
1. It estimates that 28% of voters will be black. Black turnout has usually been 23-24%, reaching 26% when David Duke was in a runoff for governor on a general election day. Now that runoffs are held a month after the general election and David Duke is a distant memory, it’s hard to see black turnout even reaching 23%.
2. This same pollster had the numbers all wrong for the general election. On 10/23, they released a poll showing Landrieu 45%, Terrell 16%, Cooksey 9% and Perkins 4%, with 27% (!) undecided. The actual election results were Landrieu 46%, Terrell 27%, cooksey 14% and Perkins 10%
So it’s still a close race and these numbers mean nothing. Sigh. I get my first independent poll and it’s worthless. I always thought New Hampshire had the worst polls in the country; but Louisiana seems to be giving it a run for its money.
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