A new poll shows the Louisiana Senate race in a dead heat. Excerpts:
The poll, conducted by Dr. Susan Howell of the UNO Survey Research Center, surveyed 700 voters. It showed that overall 44 percent of those polled favored Mary Landrieu, 43 percent favored Terrell and 13% were undecided.Along racial lines, Landrieu had the support of 75 percent of the African-American voters surveyed, Terrell had 10 percent and 15 percent were undecided. White voters favored Terrell by a margin of 56-31 percent, with 13 percent undecided.
The poll doesn’t say whether it’s talking about registered voters or likely voters. I suspect the latter.
Note that the percentage of black and white undecideds is about the same, which would favor Terrell because of the much greater number of white voters. There will be at least twice as many white voters as blacks on December 7, regardless of black turnout. That’s because the black vote as a percentage of the total in Louisiana is usually 23-24%, hitting 26% in a runoff featuring David Duke. In this runoff, I doubt if the black share of the vote will even touch 24%. Come election day, Terrell should pull ahead.
Subscribe to blog feed.