If Gore does announce that he’s not running, the field is wide open. Here’s how I handicap the candidates:
1. Senator John Kerry (D-MA) – the front-runner. Kerry brings a patrician feel to his candidacy and looks presidential on TV, perhaps the most important quality for a presidential candidate (no, George W. Bush didn’t sound very presidential, but he had a famous name.) Kerry starts out as the leading candidate to win the New Hampshire democratic primary. In the general election, though, he will be handicapped by being from Massachusetts. My take on Kerry is here.
2. Senator Tom Daschle (D-SD) – Daschle is immensely popular with the Democratic base and will pose a serious threat to Kerry’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination. He is, in my opinion, the most dangerous challenger to Bush. Daschle has stature and experience and an amazing ability to sound reasonable while lobbing grenades. I hope he gets into the race, though, because we can take his Senate seat in 2004.
3. Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) – Lieberman’s centrist image will prove a handicap in the Democratic primary. A thoroughly unimpressive candidate, Lieberman’s whininess will turn off everyone and he will not win the nomination. Just as well. A president needs to have backbone and Lieberman is a shamelessly opportunistic chameleon.
4. Senator John Edwards (D-NC) – Edwards is almost certain to run. I stand by what I said about Edwards before. He’s a “wildly gesticulating, empty-headed, pretty-boy trial lawyer.” Democratic activists are also unimpressed. On the plus side, if he runs for president, that improves our chances of taking back his Senate seat.
5. Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO) – After his party’s poor performance in the mid-term elections, Gephardt has “loser” tattooed on his forehead. He may put up a good showing in Iowa, but that’s about it.
6. Governor Howard Dean (D-VT) – The dark horse candidate who can seem ultra-liberal and conservative at the same time. Dean is hard to pigeonhole. He supports big government health care and “fiscal responsibility,” which is code for tax hikes. But he also supports gun rights. Dean is an interesting candidate, but has the same disadvantage as Kerry in the general election – he needs to climb a tall hill to convince people he’s not a typical north-eastern liberal.
Notice that all the candidates who could have voted on the Iraq resolution voted in favor, even as they sanctimoniously criticized the president about it. These are not candidates who have the courage of their principles.
UPDATE: I forgot wildcard Al Sharpton!
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