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Fundraising

The Note on 2004 presidential fundraising:

While much is made about President Bush’s long-standing ability to manage the (Great) expectations about his political place in the world, little can be, or has been, done to tamp down the notion that the re-election juggernaut will bank in excess of $200 million.

One week from tonight, the journey begins publicly, with the first of several monster June events at which checks (and names) will be taken, and it is safe to say that in the end, the president will raise more than the $100 million+ he took in last time.

The math is simple: individuals can now give $2,000 (as opposed to $1,000); the president is an incumbent (rather than an upstart [!] challenger); the president is running unopposed (rather than facing off with Ted Welch and whoever was raising money for Gary Bauer); and the list of those who gave $1,000 for ‘00 and don’t give $2,000 for ‘04 will be required reading in the Rove household and in newsrooms around America.

The weak Bush-Cheney-Evans economy, which has clearly dampened Democratic fundraising, is not expected to be much of a drag on the Republican effort.

We don’t know how much they have already raised with checks over the transom (the bare-bones website still doesn’t have much on it, and the vaunted posting of contributors has yet to commence), but we do know that the president’s team hasn’t really been able to convince the expectation setters that anything less than $200 million will be successful or sufficient.

Of course, more money is always better (We learned that early in our careers … .), but major cash is not necessarily determinative — just ask the winner of the GOP primaries in Arizona and New Hampshire in 2000, or California’s electoral votes.

With the profligate Joe Allbaugh no longer in charge of the disbursements, it’s hard to see how the campaign can spend even $150 million before the Sheekey Bridge is built.

OK: just kidding; they’ll find a way.

But the point is: even if the expectations about how much the president can/will raise have gotten a bit out of control, you will need at least a week to mentally prepare for just how staggering the discrepancy will be between how easily Bush-Cheney get people to write maxed-out checks, and how painstakingly difficult the same task is for the Big Six Democrats.

So start preparing now.

…

Imagine the Hilton ballroom, free of space-wasting tables.

Picture the venue filled with lobbyists galore, who want their country back, to have the taxes cut, and full access to the assistant secretaries of their choice.

Imagine Ken Starr taking his place among his fellow host co-chairs

You can almost hear the president’s patented, implicit “I give my least political speeches at political fundraisers, for all the obvious reasons” remarks.

You can almost taste the pretzels and peanuts (Eat first or after; don’t expect dinner.).

And if you are raising money for any of the Democrats running for the right to face Mr. Bush, you can only scrunch up your visage in the face of what is arguably the biggest mismatch in American presidential politics since Susan Estrich faced off against Lee Atwater (or Al Gore invoked Chris Petersen).

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