Governor Schwarzenegger
Immediately after the recall TV debate, I was one of the few analysts to correctly predict that Arnold would be governor, barring a meteor strike. That meteor strike came in the form of a sleazy last-minute hit piece by the LA Times.
Over the last four days, the dust has settled and the horizon is clearer. At this point, I predict that the recall will win by a decisive margin and Arnold will be governor.
Tom McClintock’s conservative supporters are outraged by the LA Times story. They will show their outrage by defecting in large numbers to Arnold. That sets up the real possibility that Arnold could win more votes than Davis.
Conservative backlash aside, the LA Times has succeeded in driving down support for the recall and Arnold. If not for the Times’ carefully scheduled hit piece, this election would have been a truly stunning wipeout. Now it’s only going to be a decisive victory.
UPDATE: The folks at RealClear Politics are making very similar predictions today. They peg the margin of victory for the recall at 57-43. It’s worth noting that the 2002 elections were correctly called by RealClear Politics and by me.
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