Dean Wins
Dick Morris says that Weasel Clark’s decision not to contest Iowa makes Howard Dean the likely nominee:
It’s not that a candidate must win Iowa and New Hampshire to win the nomination. Bill Clinton lost them both and prevailed in 1992. (Tom Harkin from Iowa and Paul Tsongas from next-door Massachusetts won those first two contests.) But a candidate who wins both of these early contests and does not come from the local neighborhood acquires a momentum that is irresistible, particularly if his victory is a come-from-behind upset.It is not that Clark won’t win Iowa or New Hampshire that will doom his candidacy. It’s that Howard Dean will.
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Dean will probably win in Iowa, and knock out Rep. Dick Gephardt of neighboring Missouri in the process. The momentum from Iowa will swamp Kerry in New Hampshire and the surge from the first two victories will eviscerate Sen. John Edwards in his next-door South Carolina.
The impact of this trifecta of upsets cannot be offset by Clark’s national base of amorphous popularity. By the time Wesley Clark shows up to the dance, it will be over.
I rarely agree with Morris’ predictions. But, in this case, I do. I’ve been predicting a Dean nomination since February.
UPDATE: The Note adds a cautionary word:
The Note endorses the notion that Howard Dean just might have let expectations get out of control.While much of the coverage still assumes that Dean will become his party’s standard bearer — maybe after running the first-in-the-nation Iowa/New Hampshire table (Dick Morris endorses that exact concept today … . LINK), what if Gephardt wins Iowa and Kerry wins New Hampshire, creating two Comeback Kids and leaving Dean the odd man out with no obvious place to win next?
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