The Un-Dean
Way back in February, when Howard Dean was just a little-known former governor of Vermont, I wrote:
John Kerry is clearly the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination; but, in my opinion, the person most likely to beat him isn’t Joe Lieberman (too hawkish, too soporific), John Edwards (too callow, too ambulance-chaser), Dick Gephardt (too blonde, too bland) or Bob Graham (too crazy, too grandfatherly.) The person most likely to beat Kerry for the nomination is Howard Dean.
Now, of course, Dean is the front-runner and it’s up to his rivals to defeat him. Says Michael Barone:
At the November 15 Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner in Des Moines, Kerry and John Edwards said that the party needs a nominee with answers, not anger. Gephardt and Joe Lieberman have struck similar notes. They hope to be the un-Dean–the candidate who survives Iowa, New Hampshire, and the gantlet of February 3 contests and then faces off against Dean in the big states starting with Michigan February 7. Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi expects that someone will emerge as the un-Dean. And it’s not clear that in the big states Bush haters will outnumber more ambivalent Democrats. Either Dean or the un-Dean, whoever he turns out to be, could win.
Before they can beat Dean, the un-Dean Democrats have a serious problem to contend with: There are too many of them. Dick Gephardt could beat Dean in Iowa. John Kerry could beat him in New Hampshire. Weasel Clark could beat him in South Carolina. However, each of these un-Deans will have a difficult time distinguishing himself from the pack and surviving the assault that Dean will direct at him, now that Dean has opted out of public financing and can focus his large campaign resources on key states without any limits. Witness, for example, the attack ads that Dean is aiming at Gephardt, now that Gephardt appears to be the chief obstacle to Dean’s winning Iowa.
If Dean ends up winning Iowa and New Hampshire, the un-Dean vote in South Carolina might end up weak and split between neighboring-son John Edwards, retired General Weasel Clark, mushy “moderate” Joe Lieberman and the always-reminding-you-that-he’s-a-Vietnam-Veteran John Kerry. That would enable Dean to sweep the February 3 contests and make it impossible for any un-Dean to unseat him.
Barring a major stumble by Dean or a major leap by an un-Dean, Howard Dean is hurtling towards an inevitable victory in the Democrat primary and an inevitable debacle in the general election.
Subscribe to blog feed.