That New Hampshire Poll
You may have heard of that New Hampshire poll a couple of days ago showing President Bush leading Howard Dean by 27 percent in the state. I’ve refrained from even mentioning the poll so far because, as I’ve said so many times before, general election polling at this point is virtually meaningless.
However, various lying liberal assertions about the poll compel me to respond.
Assertion 1: The poll vastly overstates Bush’s margin.
Let’s stipulate to this for now, since I have little faith in poll numbers this far out from the election.
Assertion 2: New Hampshire is a small state whose 4 electoral votes don’t count for much.
Patently false. Losing New Hampshire in 2000 would have cost Bush the presidency. In 2004, thanks to census reapportionment, Bush is better off. He can lose New Hampshire and, say, Nevada and still remain president.
Assertion 3: New Hampshire is a Republican state.
Actually, in 2000 Bush won New Hampshire by just 7,000 votes. Gore and Nader combined got about 51 percent of the vote. Since then the state’s entire Congressional delegation and all of the state government have become solidly Republican. New Hampshire was a swing state in 2000, but has become Republican since then. Democrats can’t take comfort from that.
Assertion 4: Other Democrats would run stronger than Dean.
Dean is the governor of neighboring Vermont. He leads all other Democrats in the primaries by at least 30 points. He’s been camped out in New Hampshire for at least a year now, shaking innumerable hands and giving interminable speeches. Meanwhile, President Bush hasn’t even begun campaigning. If Dean can’t beat Bush in New Hampshire, exactly which other state is he going to steal away from Bush that Al Gore couldn’t win?
Assertion 5: New Hampshire is an aberration. In other states, like Ohio, Bush’s popularity is declining.
There’s a little validity to this, but only a little. New Hampshire is the “Live Free or Die” state of rock-ribbed libertarianism. It’s not like the deep South, where social issues defeat the Democrats every time. If Bush is doing well in New Hampshire, the Democrat mantra can no longer be “It’s the economy, stupid.” And, if there’s one Red state where the Democrats’ “Iraq is a Quagmire” message should be working, it’s New Hampshire. The message doesn’t work.
And, while we’re at it, let’s note that the lying liberal media buried this poll. If Dean had been leading Bush by even a single point, you can bet that the poll would have been front-page news. And all the lying liberal pundits would have heralded the end of the BushCo interregnum.
UPDATE: Come to think of it, isn’t the poll-burying another example of the liberal media cocoon that keeps Dean-world firmly insulated from reality?
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