Responding to Zogby
Horace Cooper takes on Zogby’s prediction that Kerry will win by examining and taking apart the arguments Zogby relies on for his prediction. One of the best arguments Cooper makes is against Zogby’s claim that Kerry is a good closer:
Zogby argues that Kerry is “a good closer,” as evidenced by his come-from-behind win over the popular GOP governor of Massachusetts, William Weld, in the 1996 Senate race. This, he says, should push Kerry over the line in November, but it actually says more about his weakness than his strengths. Scrappy? More likely sloppy.Kerry beat Weld in 1996 in a performance far from noteworthy. Consider the following: 1) It’s Massachusetts; 2) Kerry was the odds-on favorite going into the race; 3) There were only 470,000 Republicans in the entire state out of a total population of more than 6 million; 4) Bill Clinton carried Massachusetts in his re-election bid by 33 points over Republican Bob Dole at the same time Kerry was squeaking by.
The most notable thing about the race was the way in which Kerry managed to turn a 15 point lead six months out into a statistical dead heat by September. After all was said and done, Kerry won with 52 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 3 to 1
I still don’t understand why Zogby would make such a prediction, this far out, in an election that surely will be decided as much by world events that have not yet taken place as anything the candidates themselves say or do. I have several guesses, but am sure most readers here have already made them.
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