Scoreboard Watching
If you’re like me, you spend a fair amount of time watching the polls, trying to find trends or at least see who’s ahead. This year, a lot of attention (rightly, I think) is being put on each state’s polling, but it can be difficult to see just how it all shakes out. I have read a lot of posts amounting to “My guy’s winning!“,“No, mine is!”, “No, see this poll, mine is ahead!“,etc. Just to waste time and see for myself, I have drawn up a little formula, and it shows an interesting picture.
Thanks to RealClearPolitics.com and some similar sites, I have been able to track state polling since January (actually further, but I have thrown out the polls from before Kerry took the Democratic lead). I have made my formula in this manner: I take each state’s polls in 2-week averages, weighing them proportionately less as time goes by, and call the weighted results my “trending” poll. I then consider the last 7 polls for each state for a “current average” poll. I take the results of those two, and average them out to project who is really ahead, all things considered. It’s fun for numbers-crunchers, but I apologize in advance if that’s not your thing.
Wyoming, Alaska, Nebraska, North Dakota, Mississippi, Delaware, Hawaii, and D.C. have not played along; there are no polls out for these states, so I have been forced to leave them in the ranks they took in 2000. Not really shocking, as these states have been pretty constant over the years. That gives President Bush a 20 to 11 Electoral lead as we begin.
Utah, Idaho, Alabama, Texas, and Montana all poll for Bush by twenty points or more, giving him another 55 Electoral Votes. Rhode Island and Massachusetts poll for Kerry by more than twenty points, giving Kerry another 16 Electoral Votes.
New York, Maine, Vermont, Illinois, Connecticut, and Maryland all poll for Kerry by ten points or more, taking them off the table and giving Kerry another 76 Electoral Votes. Kansas, Indiana, Kentucky, South Dakota, Louisiana, Georgia, Oklahoma, and South Carolina all poll for Bush by ten points or more, giving Bush another 67 Electoral Votes.
That means that 21 states have been polling strongly for a candidate, pretty much since the start of the campaign. Our realistic playing field, then, comes down to the remaining 22 states which have polled in single digits, especially those which are polling differently now than they did in 2000.
California is much-talked-about, but it’s not really on the table. Kerry is up by an average of 8.75 points, in a state Gore took by 11 in 2000. Kerry is up 6.1 points in Minnesota, which Gore took by only 2 points in 2000. Kerry is up 5.8 points in Washington, which Gore took by 5 in 2000. That gives Kerry another 76 Electoral Votes, pretty much safely tucked away. Bush leads by 8.85 in Tennessee, which he took by 11 last swing. Bush is up 6.85 in Colorado, where he won by 9 last time. That gives Bush another 19 Electoral Votes. So, there are 17 states left to look at, Kerry enjoying a 18 EV lead at this point, but both candidates well away from the 270 threshhold to win.
5 points can be a close thing, but some states are steady enough that they can be close, yet reliable. New Mexico is polling for Kerry by only 3.05 points, but that is much broader than Gores’ margin in 2000, and there is no reason to expect it will drift away now. Same for Wisconsin, which only polls +3.05 for Kerry, but again is much broader than the effective tie in 2000. Same also for Oregon, which only gives Kerry a 2.75 point lead, but has been trending more and more for him. That gives Kerry another 3 states, and another 22 EV. Bush only leads Kerry by 4.8 in Arizona, but he’s always led there, and is trending stronger. Bush only leads by 3.55 in Missouri, but he’s getting the same numbers there that he got in 2000. Bush only leads by 2.15 in Florida, but he is trending stronger, and appears to have momentum, now that the Economy is getting behind him. That gives Bush another 3 states and 48 more EV, and gives him an 8-vote lead, as we finally focus on the true battlefield states, the 11 which will decide this election.
209-201
North Carolina is polling +6.55 for Bush, but considering Bush took NC by 13 in 2000, he has work to do there. Arkansas is polling +2.9 for Bush, but the numbers bounce around, and this could easily be the best chance Kerry has to take a Southern state. Virginia has Bush ahead, but only by 2.0 points, and he has had to struggle. Job numbers will drive the results. Bush is ahead in West Virginia by exactly 1.365 points, largely due to Kerry’s gaffe about miners, but again, jobs will decide the state. Bush is still ahead in Nevada, but only by an average of 1.0 point. And while Bush has regained the lead in Ohio, his average margin is only 0.9 point; while the recovering job market should help Bush, he’s not there yet, and this is a barometer for more than just Ohio. That’s 64 EV which sits in the Bush column right now, but are nowhere near secure.
New Jersey polls +5.8 for Kerry, but against the 16 point margin Gore enjoyed in 2000, that’s a real problem for Kerry. New Hampshire is polling +3.25 for Kerry, which is much better than 2000, when Bush squeaked it out. Michigan went for Gore by 5 points in 2000, but Kerry only polls +2.6 points there, and the trend is towards Bush. Iowa is polling +2.25 for Kerry, which is stronger than Gore enjoyed in 2000 (+1), but too close for comfort. And Pennsylvania is the closest of all of Kerry’s critical states, polling +1.9 for Kerry (vs. +5 for Gore in 2000), but trending for Bush. So Kerry, too, has 64 EV in his column, which are not at all secure.
All in all, not much change. The only state which flips from 2000 in this projection is New Hampshire, but the real story is the closeness in certain states; The average Margin-of-Error for polls is around 3.1%, and 12 states have average margins within that MoE. Also worth noting, are Ohio, Nevada, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, all important states which seem to be drifting away from the party they supported in 2000, although with the rising economy, Bush has taken advantage to redirect that drift.
So, if you want a score, right now it’s 209-201 Bush ahead of Kerry, with another 128 EV waiting to see what the Economy and the Iraq handover mean to things. Expect a lot more action and reaction, and more debate about it, some of which might even matter.
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