If you are one of those who receive updates from the Bush-Cheney campaign, then you just received an e-mail from Bush pollster Matthew Dowd which stated in part “historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention.”
Some may be fretting over this one. Here are some points to remember…
1. Historical circumstances do not apply in this race. We are in uncharted waters.
2. Bush has 44% of the electorate firmly behind him.
3. Kerry may pick his running mate tomorrow. That will lessen any bounce Kerry gets from his convention.
4. Any bounce Kerry gets will have to withstand an entire month of Bush campaign ads which the Kerry campaign cannot answer.