Liberal Polling Dissonance: The Valley of the Sun
The Contest: 2002 race for the open Arizona Governor’s chair.
The Contestants: Democrat Janet Napolitano versus Republican Matt Salmon.
The Polls
Date: October 21, 2002
Source: PBS Affiliate KAET-TV/Arizona State University
“Poll:” Democrat Napolitano leads Salmon, 45-34, with 14 percent “undecided,” and 7 percent intending to vote for third-party candidates
Date: October 29, 2002
Source: Behavior Research Center
“Poll:” Among the “most likely” voters, Democrat Napolitano leads Salmon, 46-36, with 10 percent “undecided,” and therefore 8 percent planning to vote for third-party candidates
The Actual Results
Date: November 5, 2002
Source: Voters
Result: Napolitano wins, 46-45, with third parties taking nine percent, and zero (0) percent undecided
The Democrat took either exactly or almost exactly the same amount of votes as that indicated by the “polls.” The stated support for the Republican, on the other hand, and quite remarkably, somehow managed to be much less than what actually occurred in the voting booths. And, of course, the extra 1-2 points for the third-party candidates must have originated from the previously “undecided,” surveyed bloc of voters. Therefore, the GOP candidate received — ahem — 91.5 to 100 percent support of the remaining persons who were “undecided,” as of the time the “polls” were conducted.
Hmm.
Yet another post-2000 set of media “polls,” in which, if they were correct, the overwhelming majority of the “undecided” bloc went and voted, lock step, for the Republican candidate.
How in the name of Barry Goldwater could this same phenomenon have occurred so often?
Subscribe to blog feed.