My Thoughts
In a recent post, Polipundit referred to Douglas Brinkley as an “historian.” That made me, an historian by training, think about his role in the Swiftboat controversy. While Kerry is certainly not blameless in the matter, Brinkley must also bear some responsibility. He forgot that he was supposed to be writing a biography, not a hagiography. Brinkley let his own personal emotions blur his objective judgement as an historian – he was so taken by his subject, so bent on making him a larger-than-life hero that he failed to check his sources and engage in the factual, objective analysis that separates the skilled historian from the poor one. Brinkley would not be the first historian to make this mistake, but it should be interesting to hear if the media comes down as hard on him as it did on Stephen Ambrose. While Ambrose’s offense was more serious, both committed historical “malpractice.”
On the polling front, Time has released a poll showing President Bush leading Kerry 46%-44%, with Nader taking 5%. While I am delighted that the President enjoys a two to three point lead in several recent polls, I hope his convention will focus on converting some of the soft Kerry support and swaying the undecideds to bring the President above 50% on the ballot test. The fact that Nader will not appear on several crucial state ballots is also of some concern to me. I am comforted by the notion that the ruthless Democratic efforts to kick him off the ballot should not endear many Nader supporters to the Kerry candidacy, but his absence on the ballot should make us exert ourselves even more.
Rasmussen has released numerous state polls. It seems that the President has pulled away in Arkansas, and I believe the Kerry campaign will probably write it off as a loss. Of course the Democrats will claim that they will contest North Carolina, but they will write it off as well after the GOP convention. So it seems the President has formed the solid L going into his convention.
While the President is doing quite well in Missouri, Ohio remains a close race, so expect the Buckeye State to remain in contention. More interesting is the California numbers, probably the most reliable given Rasmussen’s formula. He has the President surging 9 points from his previous 18 point gap. He is now polling 42% in the Golden State. His job approval rating is 46%. While Ralph Nader is not on the ballot in California, I did notice that Kerry campaigned in San Francisco.
Were I in the President’s campaign, I would poll California a week or two after the convention. If the President is within five points, then he should contest it because Kerry would have to respond, and he can ill-afford it given his expenses in August on the Swiftboat ads.
UPDATE: The President has a 51%-45% job approval rating in the CNN/Time Poll. This is outstanding, and sets him up to pull out of the convention with a six-point lead or better, if he plays his cards correctly.
UPDATE: 57% of North Carolina veterans are voting for President Bush. 35% are voting for John Kerry.
UPDATE: Twice as many Democrats are voting for Bush as Republicans are voting for Kerry in Florida.
Subscribe to blog feed.