The Battle for Pennsylvania
Once again the eyes of the nation are on Pennsylvania as the second-largest of the swing states appears to hang closely in the balance. While Pennsylvania is no longer the electoral powerbroker it once was, the 21 electoral votes it provides, given the closeness of the national race, are decisive.
Where do the two candidates stand right now? First, let me dispel the notion that the Bush campaign has written off the Keystone State. That is false and seems to be wishful thinking on the part of the liberal mainstream media which frankly doesn’t understand that Philadelphia and Pennsylvania are two different things.
Several polls have been released in the past few days indicating that Pennsylvania presently leans one or two points to John Kerry. That would make sense, given the fact that President Bush is only one or two points ahead nationally. Moreover those PA polls are often registered voter polls. In PA, the Democrats have a nine point registration edge, but election day, the two parties seem to break even – 40% R, 40% D, 20% I.
Were the election to be held today, the region most important to each candidate would be the greater Philadelphia region – Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, Bucks, Northampton, and Lehigh Counties. President Bush lost five of these counties in 2000. To win re-election would require winning at least three or perhaps four of them. The polls right now indicate that the two candidates are tied in this region. Quinnipiac has Kerry up two. SurveyUSA has President Bush up three.
The other critical factor is which candidate gets his vote out better. The NRA is going to spend millions getting out the vote in central and western Pennsylvania. At the same time thousands of GOP volunteers, including yours truly, are going to get out the vote in southeastern Pennsylvania.
Given how close the race is here, if you are a Republican in Maryland or New York, think about coming here on election day. Your exertions will be greatly appreciated.
This should clear up another misconception. Here is SurveyUSA’s poll of Pennsylvania impressions of the last presidential debate. President Bush edged Kerry among independent voters.
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