Ray Fair Says: Viva Bush!
All you political junkies have heard of Ray Fair, right? You know, that Yale guy with the econometric model that has this uncanny track record of predicting the results of presidential elections.
Now, the better time for a blog about the Fair Model would be at the end of the month, after the economic data (growth and inflation) is released for the third quarter.
But, in the spirit of being controversial, and rattling the left’s cages, what the heck? Let’s look at the numbers right now, shall we?
The formula for the Fair Model is right here.
The variables (as of June 30, 2004) are as such:
1) Real GDP growth during year 2004 = 3.90 percent. (See here).
2) Inflation = 2.21 percent. (See here – Table 4).
3) Number of quarters with GDP greater than 3.2 percent = Six. (See here).
If you run those numbers, you get a Reagan-esque landslide figure for President Bush, on the popular vote, that is. Far and away above the President’s support in the liberal media “polls” on which everyone has been ruminating. But, then again, given the recent history of how “accurate” those polls have been, well, who knows?
(Note: For a more detailed analysis of the Fair Model — as of the second quarter — click here.)
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