2006 Pennsylvania Senate Race
A new poll in Pennsylvania has Bob Casey leading Rick Santorum by 7 points in the Lehigh Valley. Perhaps the best indicator of federal statewide races, the Lehigh Valley consists of Lehigh County and Northampton County. It’s also the home of your truly.
We can use the Lehigh Valley numbers from 2000 to roughly ascertain the strength of each candidate statewide.
In 2000, Rick Santorum trounced Ron Klink by 14 points in the Lehigh Valley. He now apparently trails by 7 points. That constitutes a 21 percent swing against the incumbent. Replicated statewide, it would put him down 14 points statewide.
Meanwhile, Ed Rendell leads Bill Scranton by 12 points and Lynn Swann by 16 points in the Lehigh Valley. However, there is a very large number of undecideds in the Rendell-Scranton match-up.
For comparison, Rendell trounced Fisher by 18 points in the Lehigh Valley in 2002.
Leading Scranton by 12 would be a swing of 6 points in Scranton’s favor. Replicated statewide would give Rendell a 2 point lead over the former Lieutenant Governor.
Santorum is going to have the political fight of his life next year, and Rendell is certainly vulnerable to a strong Republican candidate with a winning message. With any luck, Pennsylvania could feature the two most interesting gubernatorial and senatorial races of 2006.
Caleb writes in the comments:
“Do you keep Santorium who worked hard to see that a cancer in the GOP Senate locker room (Specter) got re-elected or would his loss send a message to Hagel and Graham and some other mavericks that are constantly causing trouble.”
While the utter insensitivity of referring to Arlen Specter as a cancer is beneath contempt, I am wondering how in the world anyone who is intellectually honest could refer to Rick Santorum a maverick. Santorum is the third-ranking member of the Republican Senate leadership, and his ACU ratings are among the highest in the caucus. If it was an unpardonable sin for Santorum to support Specter, who had supported Santorum with all the means at his disposal in 1994 and 2000, then was it also unforgivable for President Bush to support the Senator, who failed to carry Pennsylvania for him in 2000?
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