2006 Senate Races
On the recruiting angle, it appears likely that Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele will toss his hat into the ring. And in Michigan, the tea leaves suggest Jane Abraham is leaning towards entering the race to oppose Debbie Stabenow. And that would guarantee the presence of at least one viable Republican primary candidate there.
The GOP has been set for quite a while in Minnesota and New Jersey.
That leaves North Dakota, Nebraska, Florida, and Washington State as extremely-vulnerable Democratic seats, depending, of course, on whether or not the GOP can recruit viable candidates.
Mike DeWine and Rick Santorum remain the GOP’s problematic seats. Although a loss by the former hardly would change the voting patterns in the chamber.
Ergo, I’m still inclined to set the over/under at GOP + 1. If, however, the party were to get its act together (yeah, right), and to recruit strong candidates for each of the aforementioned races, the over/under will go to GOP + 3.
Lastly, seats are not necessarily votes. If the GOP picks up three or more net conservative *votes* next year, you can turn out the lights:
‘Cause the Democratic Senate Party will be over.
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