Kalifornia
National Republicans are increasingly confident that the GOP’s fortunes are steadily rising in the state of John Fremont.
“(While) population growth is slowing in left-leaning coastal areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco, it is accelerating in more conservative regions like the Central Valley and the Inland Empire area east of Los Angeles.”
To examine the situation myself, I examined the 2004 exit poll data from the Bush-Kerry data, and I did find some reason for optimism.
President Bush won 47% of the male vote, a 1% improvement, but 41% of the female vote, a 5% improvement.
He won the white vote 51%-47%, a 5% improvement. Incredibly, he won 18% of the African-American vote, a 7% improvement from 2000. Of course, his most celebrated gain was 4%, to 32%, among Hispanic voters.
Democrats constituted 39% of the electorate, and Republicans were close behind with 33%. However, Independents went heavily for Kerry.
It seems that the month of October was a rather bad one for President Bush in the Golden State. Among the 78% who had decided before October, the voters were roughly evenly split. However the remaining 22% split heavily for Kerry, giving him his statewide lead.
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