2006 New York Senate Race
I am looking at the Marist Poll on the United States Senate race in New York, and am rather intrigued.
As a word of caution, I would prefer to see other polling data match the Marist results, and the sample was only done on one night.
However, there are some very worrisome signs for the New York Senator contained in the poll.
Among Democrats, Clinton leads 69%-13%, with 18% undecided.
Among Republicans, Pirro leads 50%-26%, with 24% undecided.
Among non-enrolled voters, Clinton leads 46%-28%, with 26% undecided.
Clinton is only winning 70% of Democratic voters. While I expect the undecideds to come home, Clinton shouldn’t be struggling with the Democratic base in New York. Pirro is certainly underperforming among Republicans, and she must bring some of the Clinton supporters in her base home. However, the Westchester DA is holding Clinton under 50% among non-enrolled voters.
In the regional results, the news is even better for Pirro. Clinton leads in the upstate 45%-32%, with 23% undecided. Clinton barely leads in the suburbs 41%-39%, with 20% undecided. Of course, Clinton leads in New York City, but only 62%-14%.
For a Republican to win in New York, he or she must win around 60% of the vote in the suburbs and the Upstate. These numbers indicate that Pirro certainly has an opportunity to amass such a coalition. Pirro though needs to start stockpiling campaign cash. She is going to need every bit of it.
If the election were held today, Clinton would probably win 54%-57% of the vote. That is going to raise questions among Democratic primary voters.
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