Miers
So President Bush has nominated Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. I cannot deny that I was initially quite disturbed by the news. This seems like a huge gamble. Miers may be a conservative, but it is by no means certain. If she turns out to be a liberal, I do not know if President Bush will politically recover. However, I doubt that President Bush would nominate her if she were anything but a conservative. He has known her for many years and probably knows where she stands on important issues.
Of course, the Senate races that year that will matter most for the GOP are in the Northeast (Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey, and Maryland). In all these races, it will be crucial for the GOP candidate to win suburban, pro-choice moderates. If President Bush had picked a firebrand conservative, it might have spelled the end for Senator Santorum and would make the task facing State Senator Kean almost impossible.
UPDATE 1
One reader in the comments said that my analysis is wrong because in off-year elections, we need the base to be motivated. Well, in 2004 our base was motivated like never before. Last I checked, we did not carry Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or Maryland either. We are not going to win elections in those states on our base alone.
UPDATE 2
I am reading other conservative blogs, and frankly, this is starting to remind me of the hysteria surrounding the so-called Deal of 14. Need I remind any of the hysterical conservatives that the deal resulted in our winning confirmation for several conservative justices and Judge Roberts?
UPDATE 3
Conservatives are also in hysterics that she has given money to Democrats in Texas. I do not have to remind you that the Texas Republican Party is a relatively modern innovation. She may have given money to Al Gore in 1988 (wasn’t he pro-life back then?), but in 2000, she was a prominent backer of the Texas Governor.
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