In reality, barring some major and dramatic turnaround in the political landscape, the 50 seat GOP wave has now in many ways moved closer to the floor for Democratic losses. With the economy continuing to flounder and with fewer than 60 days until Election Day, the potential for a once-in-a-century type of wave that would lead to GOP gains in the 60-90 seat range is increasing.

Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.

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The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans’ 2010 victory. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net +6 governorships. We now believe they will win +8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country.

“Simply put, Democrats find themselves heading into a midterm election that looks as grisly as any the party has faced in decades. It isn’t hard to find Democratic pollsters who privately concede that the numbers they are looking at now are worse than what they saw in 1994.

The race-by-race outlook confirms the dire forecasts. Cook Political Report House Editor David Wasserman points out that at this point, 32 Democratic incumbents are running even or behind their Republican challengers in one or more public or private polls. At this point in 2006, when Republicans lost control of Congress, only 11 GOP incumbents were running even or behind.

Privately, some Democratic pollsters say that they are routinely seeing districts where Democratic incumbents are running only even with relatively unknown GOP challengers. In other districts where the Republican challengers are reasonably well known, the incumbents are often running 5-10 points behind, a rather extraordinary development at this point.

In the Senate, while the odds still favor Democrats holding on to a narrow majority, it is not only mathematically possible for the GOP to capture a majority this year, but it has become plausible. The odds of Democrats capturing even one currently Republican-held seat appear to be getting longer. Meanwhile, Republicans are running ahead or roughly even in 11 Democratic-held seats, one more than necessary for control of the Senate to flip. It’s still a tall order but not crazy to say that Republicans will win the Senate.

Congress does not come back to town for two more weeks, but it is a pretty safe assumption that the mood among Democrats will be surly and the fingers will begin pointing. A party has not lost a House majority in such a short period of time in over a half-century. This is not going to go down well.”

I have zero sympathy for these people. Remember how we felt when they managed to destroy the best healthcare system in the world?

Meanwhile, Republican John Kasich now leads comfortably in the Ohio governor’s race. And Republican Tom Emmer has pulled into a dead heat in the Minnesota gubernatorial contest. This may be an even bigger year for Republican governors than I’d predicted!

Are We the People really going to take this country back from the Ruling Class? Early signs are very, very positive.

This makes at least five Tea Party topplings of Republican establishment candidates: Joe Miller in Alaska, Mike Lee in Utah, Ken Buck in Colorado, Rand Paul in Kentucky, and Sharron Angle in Nevada. Four of the five are heavily favored to win the general election, and Sharron Angle is neck and neck.

As someone who’s been involved in the Tea Party movement from the beginning, I take a lot of pride in this. And I thank San Diego “community organizers” like Sarah Bond, Dawn Wildman, and Leslie Eastman. Without them and their counterparts across the country, none of this would be possible.

We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.

Yes we can!!!

My apolitical mother caught an excerpt while channel-surfing, and summed it up nicely:

“Wow, he looks so skinny! His job is taking a toll.”

Reports yesterday emerged that Joe Sestak had potentially violated House ethics rules barring earmarks going to for-profit groups. Now, the Sestak campaign and the would-be earmark recipient, Drew Devitt, are offering competing, at-odds narratives.

At issue is whether Sestak’s congressional office was aware that Devitt, who requested a $350,000 earmark as chairman of the Thomas Paine Foundation, also heads a for-profit group called New Way Energy, LLC., which would have “partnered” with his foundation to develop a potentially for-profit wind prototype.

The problem is: The Thomas Paine Foundation exists only on paper. Calls from Battle ‘10 to the foundation were unsuccessful. An automated message noted that the number had been disconnected. The foundation hasn’t filed a federal tax return in six years. In 2004, its most recent filing year, its budget totaled $195, with “program expenses” amounting to $65.

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While the earmark request has been rejected by a House appropriations subcommittee, that it was even proposed by Sestak raises the question of what Sestak’s office considers “due diligence”.  What would qualify a foundation — with no prior research and development experience and whose most recent programs budget totaled $65 — for a $350,000 wind energy grant?

Calls to the Sestak campaign for further comment have not been returned.

In Ohio, George W. Bush would beat Barack Obama 50-42! Money quote from PPP’s Democrat pollster:

“A couple months ago I thought the Pennsylvanias and Missouris and Ohios of the world were the biggest battlegrounds for 2010 but when you see numbers like this it makes you think it’s probably actually the Californias and the Wisconsins and the Washingtons.”

“So, we have a lot of reeducation to do.”

Where have I heard that word before?

Despite a large early lead for Manchin, I’d predicted that this race would quickly tighten. And so it has. Another pickup opportunity for Republicans.

The [Alaska Libertarian Party Board] meeting was contentious at first. Two board members who were clearly on the Tea Party friendly Joe Miller side were combative before they realized that the other three board members agreed with them on the essentials. At a number of points the meeting even digressed into name-calling. The ‘F’ bomb was even tossed around a number of times. One board member was hellbent on holding an immediate statewide meeting open to full membership or registered Libertarians to decide the matter. That idea was shot down 4 to 1.

The vote on Murkowski was taken at about halfway through the meeting which lasted a total of 3 hours. After the result was clear, tempers calmed down, and the 5 member board moved forward with plans on how to announce the results to the media.

On Sunday morning, over coffee and donuts, the ExComm voted unanimously, 5 to 0 to deny the Senator the ballot line. There was no malice intended. ALP Chair Kohlhaas has repeatedly stated that she is a nice lady, and the ALP was flattered by the offer.

(via the ultra-liberal Political Wire)