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Poll: How Many Trump Delegates Will Defect To Cruz After the First Ballot?

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April 12, 2016
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Two-thirds of the Republican national convention delegates are allocated by state conventions or state parties. Such delegates are unbound after the first or second ballots. So:

How many Trump delegates will defect to Cruz after the first ballot?

View Results

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How Ted Cruz Will Salvage Delegates From New York

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April 12, 2016
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With voter targeting:

The Texas senator is targeting the state’s heavy Orthodox Jewish population, its most conservative districts upstate and those New York City districts with the fewest registered Republicans.

[…]

There’s parts of NYC where there’s virtually no Republicans voting. By congressional districts, you can pick off a delegate with 2,000 votes,” Republican strategist Susan Del Percio of New York told MSNBC, noting that New York’s 8th Congressional District – where Brighton Beach is – is in a district with just 27,000 registered Republican voters. Cruz’s campaign strategy signals his interest in these sparsely conservative districts. He campaigned on Wednesday in the Bronx, where there’s just 17,000 Republicans in the state’s 15th District, and after making matzo, Cruz headed to meet with Brooklyn business owners at a Marriott near the Brooklyn Bridge. That’s in the state’s 7th District, which has 19,000 registered Republicans.

[…]

While the state’s overall winner gets 14 delegates, New York doles out the other 81 delegates proportionally: A candidate who wins a majority of the vote earns all three of that district’s delegates. It’s a key threshold for all the candidates – if the winner gets under 50 percent of the vote, the second-place candidate earns a delegate too.

“Even though it’s considered Trump’s, the threshold to get delegates is 50 percent,” McLaughlin said. If Trump “doesn’t get 50 percent in the 27 congressional districts, though he may win, he’ll only gets two delegates.”

The third delegate? It’ll go to Cruz if he can come in second in those districts.

Quote of the Day

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April 12, 2016
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New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio:

“Sorry, Hillary. I was running on C.P. time.”

Cruz Now Meets Rule 40’s Requirements

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April 12, 2016
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A majority in at least eight states:

The Colorado win now gives Cruz the 8th states he needs to meet the Rule 40 (b) requirement, adding CO to TX, ME, KS, ID, ND, UT and WI. More importantly, though, from Utah until now Cruz has won the delegate race: 128 delegates for Cruz, 7 delegates for Trump, 0 delegates for Kasich. Cruz is crushing it. The race has become a race for delegate accumulation, and by shutting Trump down in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado, Cruz has shifted the terrain enough to make it much harder for Trump to get to 1237. Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz. Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.

Cruz Turns Iowa Into Winner-Take-All State

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April 10, 2016
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Iowa’s convention delegates are supposed to be allocated through various complicated mechanics, so that no single candidate gets all the delegates. But Ted Cruz’s organizing efforts have locked up practically all the delegates:

Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz captured 11 of the 12 national party convention delegates chosen at four party meetings held across Iowa on Saturday.

[…]

Iowa will send a total of 30 delegates to the national convention — the 12 selected on Saturday, 15 “at-large” delegates elected as a slate at next month’s state convention and three statewide party leaders.

Cruz supporters may be poised to secure even more of those slots after packing the party committee that will choose the slate of 15 at-large delegates. Across the four conventions, Cruz backers won five seats on the eight-member nominating committee, giving them a strong voice in filling out Iowa’s Cleveland delegation.

Quote of the Day

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April 7, 2016
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Bill Clinton, to [Only] Black Lives Matter protesters:

“You are defending the people who killed the lives you say matter.”

How long before Hillary apologizes and says she disagrees with her husband?

Venezuela Moves to Four-Day Week

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April 7, 2016
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Come Back, Ann! We Need You!

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April 6, 2016
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This Ann Coulter column saddens me. Coulter doesn’t just attack Cruz, she does it in the most mendacious way, by twisting Cruz’s policies into their unrecognizable antitheses.

Coulter seems to have forgotten that Cruz is just like her. Both Coulter and Cruz are very smart conservative lawyers who developed a thick skin, along with debating skills, during tireless hours of arguing with liberals. They’re principled enough to have become iconoclasts of the conservative establishment. Coulter should be supporting Cruz, not attacking him. Sigh.

Video: What Donald Trump Really Thinks About His Supporters

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April 4, 2016
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Trump May Have Won Arizona…

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April 4, 2016
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Video: Everything Trump Tried to Sell in His Acceptance Speech Doesn’t Exist

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April 3, 2016
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RACIST liberals have been deserting The Daily Show’s Trevor Noah for paler pastures. But maybe they should give him a second look. The man has been brilliant on Donald Trump.

Cruz’s Strategy

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April 2, 2016
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Thanks to Donald Trump, Ted Cruz hasn’t taken much of a beating from people not named Trump. Like Bernie Sanders, Cruz is in the enviable position of running against an unpopular candidate in a primary.

Cruz should capitalize on this even after the primaries are over. His campaign strategy for the general election should be one of “bringing people together,” like Barack Obama purported to do. By contrasting his youth, principles, and optimism with Hillary’s lying, small-c conservatism, and jaded cynicism, Cruz could cruise to victory.

Video: Trump Should Run for President… In Africa

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April 1, 2016
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Poll: Who will win the Wisconsin primary?

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April 1, 2016
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Latest polls here.

Who will win the Wisconsin primary?

  • Cruz (61%, 43 Votes)
  • Trump (36%, 25 Votes)
  • Kasich (3%, 2 Votes)

Total Voters: 70

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More Trump Chalking

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April 1, 2016
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Someone chalked “Stop Islam” and “Trump 2016” at the University of Michigan. Muslim students washed out the “Stop Islam” chalkings, but left the Trump ones alone because they apparently qualify as political speech.

What if, instead of “Stop Islam,” the chalker had written a choice verse from the Quran? For example:

Indeed, the penalty for those who wage war against Allah and His Messenger and strive upon earth [to cause] corruption is none but that they be killed or crucified or that their hands and feet be cut off from opposite sides or that they be exiled from the land.

If students erase the verse, it’s sacrilege. If they don’t, it’s offensive.