Make no mistake: Demographic changes are slowly turning America into California. As racially-polarized voting intensifies, and whites become a minority, only leftist candidates will be able to win the presidency.
(Illegal aliens can’t vote, but the electoral college is apportioned between the states based on their entire populations, not just the populations of voters. So the 3-4 percent of American residents who are illegal aliens give a disproportionate amount of influence to states like California and New York.)
But, in 2016, Republicans still have a shot of winning, perhaps better than an even chance.
That’s because of the Democrats’ likely nomination of Hillary Clinton.
Clinton checks an obviously helpful demographic box: She’s female. But that won’t make up for her sheer… oldness. Clinton has been around forever, looks old, and will be peddling old ideas. And, after eight years of Barack Obama, America will be eager for a change.
Meanwhile, Republicans are likely to nominate a fresh-faced conservative like Rand Paul or Scott Walker. The contrast will be obvious, and should add a point or two to the Republican nominee’s vote percentage. The question is whether that will be sufficient to overcome demographic disadvantages. It just might be.