Blog Archives

Selecting your electorate

60
November 8, 2012
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Or how to legally suppress voters. Obama faced a very serious problem last November, he was deeply underwater with voters many of whom had voted for him in 2008. If the voting electorate in 2012 was largely made up of those who voted in 2008 he was going to lose. He needed an electorate...

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Watching the returns is difficult

3
November 6, 2012
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So how did I do on my goals for this election? My original goal was 2500 contacts. I fell far short of that goal. I did not appreciate the extent to which the contact scripts would change and the degree that would increase the average contact interval. Basically script and policy changes doubled the...

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A good friend is at the Manchester Verizon Arena

2
November 5, 2012
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He’s waiting for Romney to arrive. The arena which seats 11,500 and change is standing room only with 2000-3000 people outside waiting to get in. In Manchester NH. It’s 31 degrees outside, and there are thousands of people waiting in the cold for a chance to hear Romney tonight. The fat lady sings tomorrow,...

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How the “survey” process works…

3
November 5, 2012
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So for the last few days I have been making calls for the GOTV effort for Romney. In this process I have learned a few interesting things about “polling” conducted by the campaigns. I thought I’d share this with you. We all know that both campaigns run push polls to attempt to define their...

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Obama Defectors…

7
November 2, 2012
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Vis instapundit we find this countering poll from the-fix. The summary: Two weeks of Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll interviews find 84 percent of likely voters who supported Obama in 2008 support him this year, while 13 percent say they are switching to Romney and 3 percent are backing others or haven’t made up...

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Nashua Telegraph endorses Romney

3
November 1, 2012
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Today the Nashua Telegraph endorsed Mitt Romney. They endorsed Obama in 2008. To the extent that endorsements matter in NH, this is significant. Politically the Telegraph is a left leaning paper that see itself as balancing the Union Leader. While this will not have much influence among either Democrats or Republicans, it will carry...

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Last minute efforts.

5
October 31, 2012
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In the last week, in a swing state, I have: 1: Made close to 400 contact calls for the Romney campaign. 2: Convinced a 45-50 year old non-voter to register and vote for Romney. 3: Convinced a first time female voter leaning to Obama to vote for Romney 4: Convinced a third party voter...

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About Democrat dominance in early voting…

14
October 26, 2012
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So we hear how early voting has skewed the polls to show strong Democrat turnout among likely voters. This memo from the RNC indicates that perhaps early voting is not as favorable for Obama’s prospects as the meme suggests. Detailed results are available for all the swing states so it’s worth checking out the...

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Was an AC-130 gunship available to intervene?

14
October 26, 2012
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So if this story proves true we know why the administration has been stonewalling on Libya. Via the PJ Tatler from fox news: The security officer had a laser on the target that was firing and repeatedly requested back-up support from a Specter gunship, which is commonly used by U.S. Special Operations forces to...

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Bob Krumm says Romney is ahead

25
October 24, 2012
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Bob Krumm analyzes the state of the polls and forecasts a Romney win. We are now at the end of the third period and if past is prologue, Barack Obama is in deep trouble. That is because after the debates there is no further gain in support for the incumbent, while the challenger climbs...

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A conversation with an undecided swing state voter

15
October 18, 2012
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We have had a number of exchanges here about how anyone could be undecided. We have speculated that most of them were decided but unwilling to tell a pollster their choice. I hope that what follows will shed some light on some undecided voters. Last night I got my hair cut. The woman in...

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Romney in reach in Michigan

23
October 18, 2012
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A recent poll in Michigan shows Romeny trailing there 40.5% – 44.2% with 13.5% undecided. Also Romney is winning independents 36% to 30%. Republican enthusiasm is within a few points of Democrats. With the devastation of Detroit and the “graying” of the unions this does not bode well for Obama. Admittedly Romney taking Michigan...

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The OBL/UBL rememberance bump

1
May 4, 2012
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In a comment to an earlier post about politicizing the anniversary of killing Osama, I speculated that there might well be no bump in Obama’s numbers at all. I was both right and wrong. Both daily tracking polls showed a bump in Obama’s approval rating to as much as 51% approval. Those numbers are...

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The price of Braggadocio

17
May 2, 2012
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braggadocio n. , pl. , -os . A braggart. Empty or pretentious bragging. A swaggering, cocky manner Veterans for a Strong America link weigh in on Obama’s campaigning on the backs of the SEALs.

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Rasmussen vs Gallup – what’s going on?

17
April 25, 2012
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Up until now I have viewed Gallup and Rasmussen as equally reliable in their polling. Generally they have been closer to each other than either was to the other pollsters that publish public polling results. Recently that has changed. Rasmussen and Gallup are now both producing daily head to head tracking polls on Romney...

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